Voice of Reno-Tahoe Real Estate
RENO REAL ESTATE MARKET TIPS: Three Graphs That Would Get You Ahead In The Reno Real Estate Market
We've all heard it before:
--"You cannot time the market"
--"We don't know where the market will be tomorrow,what more next year!"
--"Investing is like gambling"
--"Just follow your heart when buying a home"
I don't subscribe to any of these half-truths.
"Accurately gauging the market is not a matter of luck
or "Mondaymorning quarterbacking." There are clear telltale
indicators that can help you identify market tops and bottoms."
-Investor's Business Daily(Their CANSLIM system gained 350.3% in1998-2002. In the midst of the Stock market crash)
Friend, you can also win in the Reno real estate market and it doesn't have to be rocket science.
How? By doing a little bit of homework(Start with supply and demand).
Your name doesn't have to be Craig King but you do have to give the numbers a chance to tell you a story- and I promise you it will. And here's the best part, you don't have to do all the research on your own. That's why we're here. This is our full-time job. But what I want you to do is spend an hour or two going through the stats & graphs. So in this way you will know the right questions to ask and life my friend,will be a romance- well, you'll have at least a higher probability.
I have a number of clients this year who will tell you how understanding the market has saved them a ton of heartache and vice-versa. Was it because I was the most intelligent agent in the world? No. But my clients made the market their friend; they heeded what the market was telling them. Our job as agents is to illuminate the market for you
Anyways, "so much for the speech Joe. Get down to business"
Ok ok, here's what's been happening in the Reno Real Estate Market in the past six months:
--Homes under contract in Reno in the last six months(weekly)
Click here for full-page view
--Homes under contract and sold in Reno in the last six months(weekly)
Click here for full-page view
--Median prices of homes in Reno in the last six months(weekly)
Click here for full-page view
P.S- Hey I'd love for you to join my real estate group here at chase nation.
It's easy: Click here and click 'join group'(you'll see it on the left side)
If you want to know more about a specific area in Reno or Sparks or just want to talk about the reno real estate market. You can call me directly for a No Hassle-No Obligation 30 minute phone meeting. Joe: 775-338-7653
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Comment by smarten on June 5, 2008 at 11:21pm -
Thanks for the data Joe. But...
Guy Johnson's stats are out for May and the median sales price is DOWN 5.2% compared to April. In other words, the OPPOSITE of your trend line.
Furthermore if you compare this year's data to 2006's, you'll see that YTD, the median sales price trend is almost identical. If the rest of the year follows suit, the median sales price will be down another 10.64% come December.
As you've pointed out before, unit sales reached their low point at the end of January/beginning of February of this year. Therefore increased listings [14.3% since January] are to be expected. So is a DECREASING median sales price [for the 8-12 months following February].
I believe April's increased median sales price was an anomaly [are you reading this Michelle (unit sales were up 38.6%)?] and with all the REOs on the MLS and NODs in the pipeline, the median sales price has no where to go in the near term future but DOWN [and I believe you'll see further confirmation of this fact next month]. As long as the median sales price continues dropping, I trust you'd agree we haven't hit market bottom [and even if you don't agree, I think most buyers would].
As you've stated, heed the data the market is providing.
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Comment by Joe Salcedo on June 6, 2008 at 11:12am -
Smarten,
I checked Guy's blog post after reading your comment(btw, very informative post Guy).
I was a little bit confused at first why we had different results for May. But if you look closer Smarten you'll see in the graph(second one) that May had two consecutive down weeks(this was probably the time Guy got the numbers for May ) before the big May 26,2008 increase (as seen in the second graph).
Guy even mentioned in his post, "Granted, all sales for May might not be entered into the MLS yet,"
So that's what happened. When I got my stats from MLS it just so happened that the May 26 increase already happened. And there's no way Guy's and 'my' statistics can conflict with each other because we both get it straight from the MLS.
Oh, the other thing. Guy's stats covered Reno-Sparks. I reported on Reno's market only.
So basing it from hard data coming from MLS(unless revised next month) median sales price in Reno went down in the first three weeks but rebounded significantly in the latter part of May.
"As long as the median sales price continues
dropping, I trust you'd agree we haven't hit market
bottom."
No, I won't disagree with that.
But the continual increase(starting Dec 24,2007) in contracts made and homes sold (see first and second graph) tells me that the median sales price is not very far from hitting a bottom.
"It's just that it takes a while before people to realize:
"Oh! my low ball offers does not work anymore, maybe I should offer full price now" before I lose out and get skinned-alive by my sweet and loving wife."
Thanks for the input.
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Comment by Edee Campbell on June 6, 2008 at 5:47pm -
Good job Joe and Guy for your timely updates and explanations to those that need clarification.
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Comment by Joe Salcedo on June 8, 2008 at 4:39pm
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Edee,
Thank-you for the kind words. It really is exciting to witness history unfolding right before your eyes.
Comment
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